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The international gold price fell below the $2,900 integer mark, can the gold bull market continue?

In the early morning of February 28, Beijing time, international precious metal futures generally closed down, COMEX gold futures fell 1.46% to $2887.8 per ounce, announcing that it fell below the $2,900 integer mark; COMEX silver futures fell 2.19% to $31.86 an ounce.

Behind the price fluctuations, whether the gold bull market can continue has become the focus of heated discussions among investors. In this regard, some market participants believe that gold has accumulated a large number of profits after breaking through the resistance level of $2,950, and the bulls are facing huge pressure to take profits; At the same time, the dollar index rebounded to 106.72, further weighing on gold prices as it was denominated in the US dollar, which made gold less attractive in international markets.

Oriental Jincheng publicly said that compared with the market that will continue to rise sharply in 2024, the gold price will fluctuate more in 2025, but it is still in an upward trend and is expected to rush to $3,000 per ounce this year. However, if there is a significant rebound in US inflation, it will limit the Fed’s room to cut interest rates this year, or even end the rate cut cycle early, which may put pressure on gold prices.

Guohai Securities pointed out that the trend of central bank gold purchases has changed the traditional pricing logic of gold, with the US dollar monetary credit system shaking, in order to ensure the safety of reserve assets, since 2022, global central banks have started a new round of purchases, and the proportion of central bank gold purchases in global gold demand has risen from less than 10% to nearly 20% every year.

Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $3,100 by the end of 2025 and said that speculative positions could push gold prices soar to $3,300 if U.S. economic policy uncertainty persists. If the Fed keeps interest rates steady, gold is expected to reach $3,060 an ounce over the same period.

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