Entering ChinaYesterday, the old man read an article by a well-known Thai media person, and it made me very happy.
The author of the article is the founder of a Thai news website, and is one of the most well-known in the Thai media industry.
The article is written like this: At the beginning, the author introduces the background of China’s vigorous attack on Myawaddy, and talks about the recent panic of the Karen warlord Su Qitu and the wanton recruitment of troops.
Then the author changed his tune and began to worry about Thailand – not because the wire fraud would not be able to do it and affect Thailand’s tourism industry, but because because the wire fraud could be taken out by China.
I was a little stunned, I was killed, are you still worried about the egg?
Looking down, the author said – you see that when China was engaged in northern Burma, it secretly supported the Kokang alliance and killed Bai Socheng (Chinese officials have never confirmed this, here is the Thai author’s own understanding), Thailand should learn this strategy and take the initiative to fund and support the “relatively clean” Karen National League to overthrow the Sukhitsu forces.
The author also said that China’s support for the Wa State at the beginning resulted in the decline of the Shan State, and the Wa State became more powerful, which led to rampant drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle region of northern Thailand (as it sounds, we are to blame). Rather than sit idly by, Thailand should take the initiative to enter the game, preemptively unite with the Burmese rebel forces to attack Sukhitu, and do things in advance before China acts.
Seeing this, I understand that the author’s meaning is: instead of letting China meddle in Myanmar in the name of anti-wire fraud, it is better for us in Thailand to take the initiative to do things, and there will be no matter for China to see the stitches.
At first, the old man looked dumbfounded and laughed.
This article underestimates China’s intentions and overestimates Thailand’s strength, not to mention that China is here to fight fraud, not to grab land – even if Thailand wants to “cut off Hu first”, it must have this strength?
It’s just that this author is a Thai keyboard warrior, and it’s a fun thing to watch.
Then one day later, I came across another article in another well-known Thai media outlet that was similar, even more radical.
This article is even more violent, saying at the beginning that the United States understands that Wang is in power, so it doesn’t care much about Myanmar, the European Union is too busy to take care of itself, and Japan is closed to its own house. The Burmese civil war is in a state of scorching, the Burmese army is retreating, and the rebels are not very strong internally, so “China will definitely intervene in Burma for its own benefit”, just as it has the advantage in Shan and Kachin States, and establish a new Burma order with China as the arbiter.
Finally, the author is also worried, asserting that “ASEAN, with Thailand at its core, will gradually lose its influence on the situation in Myanmar, and the future of Myanmar will be under Beijing’s control.”
A person writes that way, it is accidental.
A bunch of people write like that, that’s another matter.
Thailand, originally not only worried about tourism, but also worried about “the replacement of influence on Myanmar by China”.
In the minds of some Thai strategic decision-makers, since Myawaddy is a cancer and does not want the Chinese to come and harvest, then well, let us Thailand destroy Sukhi Governor in advance before the Chinese start in some way!
Unexpectedly, the Thais are serious.
I talked to some Burmese Chinese friends about this.
I asked them, what do you Burmese people think about this? Do you really welcome Thailand to intervene in Burma and overthrow Sukhitsu?
Burmese friends have said: If you blow less, it is strange that it is so easy to overthrow.
Burmese say that Su Chitu’s strength is actually underestimated.
The outside world thought that Su Qidu had only a few thousand men under his command, and that was a few years ago. Su Qidu’s 14 integrated combat battalions have engaged in wire fraud in recent years, and under pressure from the Chinese government, Su Qidu has frantically recruited troops, expanded the army on a large scale, increased various special battalions and militia regiments, offered several times the high military salary of the opponent, and also invested heavily in advanced equipment such as drones and night vision devices.
The current Sukitu is said to have 12,000 men under his command, and his combat effectiveness is inflated, so he can stand still under the siege of tens of thousands of Karen rebels, and even repeatedly counterattack.
The relationship between Su Qidu and the Thai army is not tense, but there is more cooperation and communication, and the reason why the electric fraud can be so prosperous is naturally indispensable to the “release of water” by some outlaws on the Thai side.
In this way, the Thai army, not to mention that it does not have the determination and motivation to deal with Su Qidu, even if it really goes all out and sends troops to attack across the border, there is no way to take Su Qidu for a while.
Even if Thailand openly supports the Karen rebels and breaks with the Burmese military, it will be difficult to change the dynamics of power on the ground for a while.
After all, how many goods can the Thai army get out of its own warehouse?
Therefore, Thai public opinion so-called “Thailand killed Su Qidu by itself” cannot be done in the first place.
Thai public opinion’s understanding of “China’s intervention in Myanmar” is also very problematic.
In the eyes of the Thais, China is the driving force behind the situation in Myanmar – it suddenly supports Min Aung Hlaing, and sometimes supports Min Aung Hlaing, and then supports Myanmar’s general elections, and wants to create a “moderate government without Min Aung Hlaing”.
It seems that China has a golden finger, and it always turns stones into gold, and whoever wants to win will win, and the military relies on China for its survival, and the military forces of the people and land also rely on China. Anyway, China is awesome, and Myanmar will be China’s territory in the future……
You slow down first.
I would have liked that China would have been as powerful and intelligent as the Thai media portrayed it, but that was clearly too much of a promotion to China.
There is no conclusive conclusion on whether the war in northern Myanmar is really caused by China (although the Thais seem to have acquiesced in their minds), and China supports the Burmese army on the one hand, and the civilian armed forces on the other, which in itself is a bit ……contradictoryIf China really had this ability, it is estimated that there would be no Myawaddy.
China’s current outrage against Myawaddy is indeed here to fight fraud, not to gain territory. There is no need for Thailand to over-speculate about China’s motives with the heart of a villain.
Even if this is true, then you have no way to learn if you want to, and Trump is not in a hurry to make you anxious.
Even if China really “succeeds” and takes control of Myawaddy, to be honest, it will be a good thing for Thailand – in the future, Thailand and Myanmar will have three longs and two shorts, and they will just talk directly to the north, and there is no need for everyone to toss around in circles.
Thailand’s “China’s anti-fraud chess theory” is neither true nor necessary, and it is impossible for Thailand to take the initiative to counterbalance and reverse it.
So, why bother with this leisure, instead of worrying about this, you Thailand should spend more effort to eliminate its own internal demons in collusion with Sukhitu, and take the initiative to cooperate and participate – instead of resisting China’s cross-border joint attack on Myawaddy.
In the final analysis, everyone’s purpose is the same, China and Thailand both want a peaceful and controllable Myanmar, China does not have the leisure to be a tauren between Thailand and Myanmar, China-Thailand-Myanmar relations are not a confrontational love triangle, if Thailand can effectively restrain the runaway cancer on the Myanmar border, why not China?
As for Chinese netizens, I am afraid that I never dreamed that the Thai people still had this thought.
The Chinese, who are more peaceful, feel that Thailand has nothing to do with Myanmar affairs, and that Yang Feng Yin is against Yin; If you are more radical, I am afraid that you directly think that Su Qitu is the outer line of the Thai military.
China and Thailand, on the Myanmar issue, actually have some misunderstandings and unnecessary worries about each other. It is a realistic thing to understand the minds of the other side, to understand the absurdity in them, to be vigilant against the vigilance and resistance that arise from them, and to strengthen the normal development of transnational security cooperation.
If Thailand’s well-known concern is a lament that China’s regional influence has replaced the United States, then there is no need – the West does not care about Burma, and if the United States cares about Myanmar as much as Ukraine and Israel, Sukhithu is already two feet above the grave.
If you like to think about it, you can think about it, let’s just watch it as a joke.
After all, it’s good that Thailand really thinks so.
If Thailand really preempts China and takes the initiative to do Su Qidu, then we will save trouble.
Come on, Thailand, Sukito, it’s yours.
